“If neural networks are such great pattern matchers and can be used for prediction and forecasting, then can they be used to predict the stock market? If so, we can all get rich. Naturally, such thinking is to be expected and someone tried to do it [White, 1988]. He used NLS and feedforward neural networks to predict daily …
My monthly forecast goes ahead 24 months (2 full years) from the present, and shows what path is the market price following. Some of my readers ask to have an indication, an insight, a suggestion and today I want to share some of the valuable information produced from the monthly model. First, there is no …
Bifurcation is a market behavior that you get aware of when deeply analyzing it. I means that almost identical condition may produce opposite exit direction. Today is one of those days. You may say it’s easy to preview, as Yellen speaks and her market manipulation is absolute. Yes, but the model doesn’t know of Yellen’s discourse or …
On 15th of July, this was the forecast from the model, on daily basis. You may note how precise was the projection of future behavior of the S&P 500 for the month ahead. Consider that: as you move more into the future, the less reliable is the forecast from day to day the forecast chart …
Why do I make forecasts only for S&P 500? As I have extensively explained, in the database I have hundreds of price line that represent the global markets environment, so what does inhibit to apply the methodology to each of them and be able to forecast almost everything? Well, I did (and do) try to …
Forecast charts from May 05, 2016 The forecast charts are the output of the Amodel. All the work, all the code, all the information that is produced here it is put in there, in the chart. The model is designed to be adaptive and responsive, so that it adapts to (chaotic) ever changing markets. Under specific …
What does “know in advance” means, here at spxbot? I want to make you an example, so that you can evaluate – I know it’s difficult to believe that something impossible (as forecasting the market) can be done On 15th of July I published the usual daily forecast and what it was saying was: two weeks …
Shown in the chart: 1 daily bar forecast comparison with actual close. I get confirm that there is a widespread one day lagging in computations. Need to work on it. Except bars projection, all other indicators read the realtime status, now. They do not project future values, they just get a reading of the edge. But …
This is a cut out of the monthly chart produced by the Amodel. It is one of the most precious tools of the group and in this peculiar case it shows a common behavior of the forecast process (as well as the expected growth of the current and the next months): reality goes always a bit faster …
[W]hen I write here, I usually have in mind an investor, as a reader. Averagely, a professional with a certain wealth, that uses markets to park money with an interesting rate of return. There are a lot of available techniques that let you shape an investment idea and then you have to trigger decisions and operate. …
The market has undoubtly taken the upside, and a strong and vigorous sprout is blooming. It will take time, but it will flower. When I say the market here I refer to the S&P 500 index and the index is booming. It’s like looking at a rocket launch: few seconds after the start it is …
All indicators have been enhanced to a new adaptive behaviour, so that the indicators, when calculated, are never aware of any bars of the current move. This was already partly true, but now this has been stated peremptorily. The charts are much more interesting now, because Targets and Stops, for example, tend to form clouds …
Please note, this is just a part of a larger chart and it shows three indicators calculated by the A model. As the set has been trained, results are perfect. Last 8 bars are excluded from training and are guesses of the model bots. The image was produced few minutes ago. We have the Target, …
Just a few words about the evaluation of the signals from the Amodel and their execution: I always consider the execution of the position opening or close at the opening price of the following day, so that any position can be easily managed, even unattended. My own attitude is that of an investor, not a …
Today the S&P 500 index closed the week at 2057.14 and it was forecasted six days ago (last Saturday) at 2058.903.
If any of my readers is keen in battlefield strategy (I’m not as much), she/he will recognize the beauty of the struggle we are looking at in the arena of the market. The hunters are the bulls. They will lay their net. A long flat laying and the following action will be very fast, rapidity and suddenly. …
As this is an experimental service, that since the launch has been improved, I recently focused that the missing Stop indicator has to be developed seriously. While developing the Stop indicator, I modified the training model quite a bit, and as a result I found a Trading System already embedded in the model. More development. …
The new trainer has taken shape: it should provide a better preprocessing of the model and has just been tested.
A short explanation about targets (cyan dots) in forecast charts
[I]’ve found and corrected a couple of minor bugs in the Signal and in the target models (minor logical errors that under some circumstances did crash the whole code!) and this has made me think that the Signal model acts similarly to the bifurcation model under fractal theory. The market is a chaotic self-adapting structure, it …
[I]’ve just discovered that on 18th of November, Jim Slater has died, at 86. Here I want to remember him, whose book “The Zulu Principle” back in 1992 opened my eyes on how to approach share investing. If you are interested in investing in stock shares and are new to the field, this book is …