Note to new subscribers

Since months, and it’s well documented in the free blog, the daily forecast is NOT SENT BY EMAIL, but accessible via the Alpha Chart page on this website. In this way, the forecast is much more efficient and flexible to be updated if necessary (sometimes it is). Weekly and monthly forecast and analysis are sent …

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Latest improvements

Latest months have been plenty of improvements in the structure and behavior of r.Virgeel. It now outputs a standardized 3d matrix of the indicators, that is easy to chart and interpret. A new interpretation and writing module is now active and r.Virgeel is able to write comments on its own. Two new indicators have been …

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rv.Signal and rv.Position

I often receive questions about rv.Signal and rv.Position indicators and supposing they generate a bit of confusion, I hope the following may help. In origin, it was Signal. It was the first attempt to generate inversion warnings. Its model was hand trained. Then, with various steps, it has developed into the first version of the …

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Week 19 checkout

Here you may see an enlargement of the chart that the subscribers have receive one week ago, last Friday night (CET), with overimposed the real weekly action: r.Virgeel, in its weekly version, has nicely caught this week range and direction, shown in the rightmost bar, confirming the turn signal generated by the daily forecast. In …

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Update to D-FT historical

Following a subscriber’s hint, I have re-brewed the D-FT historical values, with all the four values that are daily provided and for a longer time span, 60 bars instead of 30. Also, there is the date for every record, to make it easier for you to check out past values (please, remember the D-FT is …

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The turning point

Eight days ago, on the 30th of April, r.Virgeel has fired the first “Close Long Positions”. As usual, since it trained this way, we needed a second signal to confirm, that arrived the following day, on the 1st of May. So, in the next one/two bars, depending on your trading style, the spxbot users have …

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D-FT historical data

Solicited by a subscriber, I’ve built the D-FT (Daily FastTrack) data for the latest 30 market sessions, for all the followed symbols: S&P 500 -SPX Dow Jones Industrial Average -DJIA Nasdaq Composite -NASDAQ DAX Frankfurt -DAX SHC Shanghai -SHC GOLD OIL WTI 10Y US Bond Yield -TNX I’m happy that someone helps me to check …

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How r.Virgeel is trained

Following the requests coming from some users that were initially confused about how to interpret the signals coming out from r.Virgeel, I think that nothing is better than to explain how the indicators are produced. I have never done it before so extensively. The process is very different from the calculations for a technical indicator …

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The new AlphaChart

Since a few weeks, subscribers have a new tool,  the AlphaChart page. This page on the website has substituted the daily email and post, it has a larger chart, almost all model’s outputs are represented and it integrates the weekly and the monthly forecasts on the same chart. Most recent bars are enlarged in the …

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January checkout

During the whole month of January I have strictly watched out the D-FT behavior. All the obstacles have been  easily bypassed by the comparison of the other indicators. r.Virgeel is working well and I’m preparing a new enhanced chart. It will be ready in a few days, if I can solve some stupid (?) problem …

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Forecast/ability 2

In the previous post “Forecast/ability” I did refer to the daily a.i. forecasts and I showed the results of a long and extensive research on the quality of the response of the model. But when we come to the weekly and to the monthly forecast, things change radically and for the best. Undoubtedly, weekly and …

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Forecast/ability

Following my previous post “New Tools at the Horizon“, one question was twirling in my mind: why the stock market is forecastable, but the forecasts are not affordable? The forecastability of the market is an evidence, because if it were not – being it just a random walk – there would not be the possibility …

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New Tools At The Horizon

In past September, I designed a new weekly model and some new tools to investigate more deeply the quality of r.Virgeel’s model response. The results were really astonishing and have started a real revolution inside my approach to artificial intelligence and investing. Three months later, after a huge amount of testing and experiments, the new …

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As you asked: Intraday

“I wanted to ask you if you ever thinking about making an intraday trading system.” (W.M.)   In the past, I already tried to build a real time version of the model, but it has some limitations: it’s hard to have quality data for a large set of instruments without “holes” and back in time …

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First Weekly Fast Track

I’m working on the weekly version of the FastTrack indicator and you may see it in action in the following chart. It has reversed to negative (short positions) at 2919.047 / 2905.918 (crossed twice 6 and 5 weeks ago), and then to positive long positions last week at 2682.437. This weekly version is brand new …

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The new FastTrack indicator

UPDATE 2018/12/14 Today I’ve closed the free alpha testing of the FastTrack. It is fantastic! All the spxbot readers have seen in real time it’s performance. Operations were simulated on a CFD platform. I have stopped the last (virtual) operation today in the morning (CET), with the SPX at 2623. Prices subject to a bit …

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Bifurcation at last!

If you’ve read here and there around the blog, you know I sometimes used the word “bifurcation” to indicate double exit situations, but I’ve never been able to show them, before. Now I’m building a new tool and the results are plenty of surprises. One is the following chart: Next day bar is forecasted quite …

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Serendipity at work

r.Virgeel’s model is undergoing deep modifications, sparkled by the development of the new weekly model, that has made evident some before obscure aspects. Where there was a wood, there is now a vast pratery. I’m translating the modifications into the “traditional” daily model and, it’s early to say, it seems getting sharper. The experiments must …

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Going Forward

For many months, I’ve tried to put together the pieces to have a long term database, monthly based and with a huge history. I was moved by the progress of the monthly forecast, that I see sharper than before. No way. Data is largely unavailable. Very few series of mayor commodities and indices are out …

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Mid-August Checkout

The following chart is the checkout for the forecast by r.Virgeel issued on 13th of August 2018 (red dot) after market close and actual S&P 500 bars. Evaluating the Next Bars indicator, r.Virgeel detects the less improbable pattern of H/L/C (H/L bars charted here in Magenta) for next 24 bars, under current markets conditions. The …

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The Value of Opinions

The markets are the places where opinions are transformed in money. Opinions are represented by numbers. In we consider the S&P 500, it’s numbers represent the greed and fear oscillation, under a global scale, as it is the largest stock index traded. The market is an ever-changing-chaotic-bipolar environment, made up by thousands of individuals, everyone …

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Astonishing results

The S&P 500 has entered a new never seen before territory, passing 2900 level on Monday, and you may wonder how it is possible that r.Virgeel may forecast something that it has never seen before. It’s a good question. You have to know that neural networks, if applied to a well designed model, have the …

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