selected primer

Gamification

If you think that the trader’s activity is similar to a game, I would like to first say it’s not. For many reasons. What makes to someone the trading activity similar to a game is a misconception of the bet. The novice tends to see a buy of a stock share as a bet, and, …

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r.Virgeel’s trading model

  The r.Virgeel’s model is stable since enough to let me say it is now entering its early maturity. I’m working in the refinement field to gain speed, affordability, stability. Less, and this is my fault, I work in the field of communicating how to read and use the model’s output. This is obviously useful …

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spxbot limits

Different trading and investing styles I’m fully aware of the basic fact that every trader and investor has its own style. Many schools of thinking, but everyone is really different, particularly in the private sector. If a private trader survives the first 18 months without being wiped out, then she/he may have the possibility to …

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Spxbot robo-advisory performance

(this post was originally published in the newsletter no.1 in mid January. Probably I will not publish any performance related data in the future, mainly beacause r.Virgeel is not a trading system and also because real performance depends on a lot of factors, depending on your location, tax burden, investment strategy, etc. Anyway, the first …

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A brief history of SPXBOT

In the late 80s, I crossed with BrainMaker, a suggestive piece of software that let you play with neural networks. I was working as an architect and I was self taught in the theory of patterns as formulated by Christopher Alexander. On one side pattern recognition, on the other side patterns in reality. Nice field …

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Riding the wave and then… splash!

  Following my previous post, I would like to point out that approaching the a.i. advisory, you have to change your mind. With most probability, you are trained in technical analysis, various techniques to train your eye and numbers to correlate the stream of data. With an extended application to chart reading and some discipline, …

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The Lazy Investor and A.I.

  Artificial intelligence is for lazy investors and this for two orders of reasons: it reduces the frequency of trading actions and it relieves you from the necessity of having an opinion. Any of our action requires an opinion and, in trading, our opinions are, usually, like TNT in the hands of a chimp. It’s …

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Artificial Intelligence is different

Trading is one of the easiest activities around: few seconds and you are in position, few seconds and you are out of your position. Making it profitable is a totally different discourse. Libraries are plenty of technical and fundamental analysis books and the internet is plenty of websites that offer amazing returns. All of them …

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Artificial Intelligence core explained

It’s not my aim to explain how Artificial Intelligence works and I never tried to, just sometimes I’ve discussed the media approach on the topic. I’ve seen this video and it explains quite well how the core of this technology works. We are speaking about back-propagation neural network, the pattern recognition engine that works at …

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The Dark Side of the Spreadsheet

I have read the following https://www.technologyreview.com/s/604087/the-dark-secret-at-the-heart-of-ai/ and, again, I thought about the misinterpretation that Artificial Intelligence is going through. Do your remember Visicalc? Probably not. Visicalc was the first spreadsheet, 20 rows by 5 column (!) by Dan Bricklin with Bob Frankston. It was 1978. The Spreadsheet! The tools that makes the world go around… …

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Performance chart update

I know that every new reader of the blog, and older too, has one and just one question to ask: what about performance? Show us tables, comparisons, benchmarks, charts! I tried to explain many times that working with Artificial Intelligence shifts the approach, opens a completely new way of thinking to trading and/or investing and …

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Trading opinions

Every trader and investor has her/his own framework of opinions that pilot the triggers. It is a mix of experience, knowledge and emotions. As your decisions are worth a gain, you have an euphorical sensation that you are mastering the forces that drive the market, but on the other side if your decisions take you …

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New attitude for new market

It is almost one year that the spxbot.com site is on and three and a half years since I begun developing the model. Well, many previous experiences have built the necessary skills, but this is the timing.  No, it’s not time to draw conclusions, the work is still going on – will it ever last? …

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Responsive and adaptive

Forecast charts from May 05, 2016 The forecast charts are the output of the Amodel. All the work, all the code, all the information that is produced here it is put in there, in the chart. The model is designed to be adaptive and responsive, so that it adapts to (chaotic) ever changing markets. Under specific …

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The Realm of Imprecision

Shown in the chart: 1 daily bar forecast comparison with actual close. I get confirm that there is a widespread one day lagging in computations. Need to work on it. Except bars projection, all other indicators read the realtime status, now. They do not project future values, they just get a reading of the edge. But …

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