generics

A matter of frequencies: a new model

It all started as a standard revision routine. The code analysis tool showed some issues (it shows a lot of issues, definitively) that could be easily corrected.

Recent updates

Under the usual code revision, I sorted ut with a small modification of the training set that seems to have a large impact on the stability of the neural networks in the model.

The making of reality

How do we percieve reality? Is reality what we see or is it a product of our mind?

The New Blog

spxbot.com has a new blog: new address https://blog.spxbot.com, new graphic layout and new content: a better selection of the old posts that will be updated whenever necessary. Navigation should be easier than before, readability has been improved and I hope you will like it. The whole spxbot website is under refurbishment, with the aim to …

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Video by Martin Armstrong

I have to thank this man, again. For two reasons, mainly: first, because his writings were the eye openers to understand the markets and how they work, even after many years of investing activity. Second, because without the “it’s all interconnected” message, I would have not tried to experiment with the artificial intelligence model that …

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Weapons for resolute traders

If you occasionally read this blog, you may have noted that I often say that r.Virgeel is not a trading system. I want to warn the newcomers that they will not find any automatic fount of wealth here. Any serious trader has matured its activity in a deeply constructed attitude: call it a plan, or …

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Gamification

If you think that the trader’s activity is similar to a game, I would like to first say it’s not. For many reasons. What makes to someone the trading activity similar to a game is a misconception of the bet. The novice tends to see a buy of a stock share as a bet, and, …

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Long Term Checkout

In various previous posts, I’ve stated that the monthly forecast is to take into account as a sort of path tracer, an indication, a generic route for future market action. I tend to consider it in this way, having a much more precise weekly and daily forecasts. Today, I decided to get back to the …

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Stair Seats

Most of us have a general knowledge of what statistic does: it extracts from data some relevant information about the data itself. What a neural network does is to add a layer of correlation between the data and relate it to the desired output. You must instruct a neural network, before using it. You must …

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As you asked

I have received from a reader: Am planning to take monthly subscription. Before subscribe please let me know below queries. Which platform needed to do trading ? What exactly I get forecasting daily? Any additional analysis i need to know? Before take trade? Will i get entry and exit positions? Will I get text messages …

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Waves and Cycles

When you get the patterns into the wave observation, you will see the cycles. Cycles that expand and contract, that generates trends, cycles of any dimension. Cycles that change continuously. Unlike technical analysis that tries to avoid the so called”noise”, neural networks love noise, you feed them with noise, the rawest data as possible seems …

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Waves

Today I would like to talk about waves. The markets express themselves through waves. But first, let’s look at waves. When on the shore, look at waves. look at them for a long time and pattern will arise behind your eyes. When I first attempted to put a neural network at work, the real first …

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Note to new subscribers

Since months, and it’s well documented in the free blog, the daily forecast is NOT SENT BY EMAIL, but accessible via the Alpha Chart page on this website. In this way, the forecast is much more efficient and flexible to be updated if necessary (sometimes it is). Weekly and monthly forecast and analysis are sent …

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Latest improvements

Latest months have been plenty of improvements in the structure and behavior of r.Virgeel. It now outputs a standardized 3d matrix of the indicators, that is easy to chart and interpret. A new interpretation and writing module is now active and r.Virgeel is able to write comments on its own. Two new indicators have been …

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The new AlphaChart

Since a few weeks, subscribers have a new tool,¬† the AlphaChart page. This page on the website has substituted the daily email and post, it has a larger chart, almost all model’s outputs are represented and it integrates the weekly and the monthly forecasts on the same chart. Most recent bars are enlarged in the …

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January checkout

During the whole month of January I have strictly watched out the D-FT behavior. All the obstacles have been¬† easily bypassed by the comparison of the other indicators. r.Virgeel is working well and I’m preparing a new enhanced chart. It will be ready in a few days, if I can solve some stupid (?) problem …

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Forecast/ability 2

In the previous post “Forecast/ability” I did refer to the daily a.i. forecasts and I showed the results of a long and extensive research on the quality of the response of the model. But when we come to the weekly and to the monthly forecast, things change radically and for the best. Undoubtedly, weekly and …

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As you asked: Intraday

“I wanted to ask you if you ever thinking about making an intraday trading system.” (W.M.)   In the past, I already tried to build a real time version of the model, but it has some limitations: it’s hard to have quality data for a large set of instruments without “holes” and back in time …

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Bifurcation at last!

If you’ve read here and there around the blog, you know I sometimes used the word “bifurcation” to indicate double exit situations, but I’ve never been able to show them, before. Now I’m building a new tool and the results are plenty of surprises. One is the following chart: Next day bar is forecasted quite …

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Serendipity at work

r.Virgeel’s model is undergoing deep modifications, sparkled by the development of the new weekly model, that has made evident some before obscure aspects. Where there was a wood, there is now a vast pratery. I’m translating the modifications into the “traditional” daily model and, it’s early to say, it seems getting sharper. The experiments must …

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The Value of Opinions

The markets are the places where opinions are transformed in money. Opinions are represented by numbers. In we consider the S&P 500, it’s numbers represent the greed and fear oscillation, under a global scale, as it is the largest stock index traded. The market is an ever-changing-chaotic-bipolar environment, made up by thousands of individuals, everyone …

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Managing bifurcations

You probably have noted an evident discrepancy in the public weekly and monthly range chart, published daily on the site home page: this is mainly due to the fact that in the latest couple of weeks the S&P 500 has gone through a large bifurcation, well managed by r.Virgeel in the daily and weekly time …

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New feature: a short speech

I’ve done a step further – a short step, indeed – in the construction of a report from the data output of r.Virgeel. It speaks numbers, but we better see some added word, I suppose. So I’ve added a new section to the daily report (only for subscribers, so), titled “r.Virgeel condensed”: it summarizes the …

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IMHO

In latest weeks, I did some homekeeping to the website, reorganizing the contents of the blog, improving graphics and revising all pages. A brand new intoductory page is online, that explains the genesis and the characteristics of r.Virgeel. I noted, re-reading many of the texts, that I often linger to show where r.Virgeel has problems …

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