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Housekeeping

Pushed by a desire to rationalize the code, I put my hand on the model: the model is the heart of the beast, it is the mechanism that transforms raw data into the description of the phenomenon. It’s inner structure is very sensible, since small modifications can take to largely different outputs. I’ m trying …

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To know in advance

 On 23rd of September the model has produced this forecast. It was Friday, and usually as the week closes the model is sharper in viewing into the future. As well as it seems that Thursday forecasts are the weaker, and here I just guess an interpretation: Thursday reflects all the noise accumulated during the week, …

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S&P 500 in Elliott soup

It’s quite a time I do not update the Elliott’s view and here I am today. The moment of big choices is approaching and we can read it in the chart above (by AdvGet): A long raising wave from mid February to mid August has completed. It can be either the final fifth wave of a …

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Some data about model performance

I’m sure that my (few) readers are curious of one thing: how the system has performed? percentage, percentage… I can’t blame you, even if I’m not very excited by past performance of any system. Performance percentages let’s you dream and are very dangerous 😉 But this is not a technical analysis automation or an algorithmic trader …

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The model and COT

You may wonder if does the model contains data from the COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS weekly data? No, the COT data (a report published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, that disaggregate the open interest of future contracts) is not part of the weekly model because, after a long experimentation, it resulted completely irrelevant. This …

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Improved security

Since today, the site is running under SSL for improved security. To access the site, go to https://spxbot.com If you have old urls, or bookmarks in your browser, just add an s to http, so that http://  becomes  https:// for every site urls If you are a subscriber, you will be requested to login again. New subscribers …

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Day checkout

Some days the model makes the magic: yesterday the S&P 500 index was forecasted at 2177.76 for today’s close and it actually closed at 2177.18. By the way the high was forecasted at 2180.10 and it was in reality 2179.99. BOOM! Well, it is not always so precise…  this is dedicated to SPX! stay hungry, …

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Questions from a new subscriber

A new subscriber posed some questions that may be of general interest. Thank you for asking, here the answers: Are the signals based on what the model thinks will happen after 6 bars/hours or the full 24? All the signals, except the bars projected into the future, are reading of the status of the market …

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Don’t get fooled by poets

Yesterday I read this https://medium.com/@nitin_pande/deep-neural-nets-and-the-purpose-of-life-d3d60a38d108#.l6m5b6bch and I have to say I couldn’t dissent more. No way a biological structure can be compared to a software tool, even if this software is someway inspired by what we know of the brain structure. And we are not DNN (Deep Neural Networks), as the author Nitin Pande suggests. Luckily, we are …

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About Artificial Stupidity

The coming age of thinking machines is already here. All manufactures around the world are substituting worker with specialized robots and a new subdivision of work is raising. Artificial intelligence (AI) is spreading into a lot of different fields, but always with the same purpose: obtain more efficient results and profits. A computer (and its mechanical …

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Exploring deep learning

“In the last couple of years, deep learning techniques have transformed the world of artificial intelligence. One by one, the abilities and techniques that humans once imagined were uniquely our own have begun to fall to the onslaught of ever more powerful machines. Deep neural networks are now better than humans at tasks such as …

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Big changes at the horizon

Bears are excited! Finally the market has moved and moved downward, as it often happens after a long choppy flag. We have to consider the movement to come as a run-up (down!) that comes before the market going to new highs. It may be scary and even some panic may rise, but it will take …

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Some turbulence ahead

In few days the sentiment has collapsed: now 2 out of three are bearish and this is really a nice bullish news. We are going out of the long choppy flag and rising volatility will be the main trait of coming times. Up and down for a while, with a upward bias and a lot …

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A glance into deep future

My monthly forecast goes ahead 24 months (2 full years) from the present, and shows what path is the market price following. Some of my readers ask to have an indication, an insight, a suggestion and today I want to share some of the valuable information produced from the monthly model. First, there is no …

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Bifurcation

Bifurcation is a market behavior that you get aware of when deeply analyzing it. I means that almost identical condition may produce opposite  exit direction. Today is one of those days. You may say it’s easy to preview, as Yellen speaks and her market manipulation is absolute. Yes, but the model doesn’t know of  Yellen’s discourse or …

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How past month was forecasted

On 15th of July, this was the forecast from the model, on daily basis. You may note how precise was the projection of future behavior of the S&P 500 for the month ahead. Consider that: as you move more into the future, the less reliable is the forecast  from day to day the forecast chart …

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Only S&P 500 here

Why do I make forecasts only for S&P 500?  As I have extensively explained, in the database I have hundreds of price line that represent the global markets environment, so what does inhibit to apply the methodology to each of them and be able to forecast almost everything? Well, I did (and do) try to …

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Responsive and adaptive

Forecast charts from May 05, 2016 The forecast charts are the output of the Amodel. All the work, all the code, all the information that is produced here it is put in there, in the chart. The model is designed to be adaptive and responsive, so that it adapts to (chaotic) ever changing markets. Under specific …

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Know in advance

What does “know in advance” means, here at spxbot? I want to make you an example, so that you can evaluate – I know it’s difficult to believe that something impossible (as forecasting the market) can be done On 15th of July I published the usual daily forecast and what it was saying was: two weeks …

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The Realm of Imprecision

Shown in the chart: 1 daily bar forecast comparison with actual close. I get confirm that there is a widespread one day lagging in computations. Need to work on it. Except bars projection, all other indicators read the realtime status, now. They do not project future values, they just get a reading of the edge. But …

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