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Do we need Artificial Intelligence?

I’m wandering: do we need Artificial Intelligence to recognize that we are in a bull market? When you are inside a trend, corrections are our friends and the fear of the top (or bottom) is our recurrent trouble. But, surfing is easy with a trendy market. Stay hungry, stay long.    

Engine maintenance

Latest days were spent revising the Amodel’s engine. For as simple as neural networks can be ideally, they cannot work if not arranged in an “engine”, a complex of parts that interact. I played with two components mainly: the preprocessor and the “booster”. The preprocessor code takes the raw data and arrange it in the …

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As you asked

I have received the following questions from a reader and I’m happy to publicly reply, considering that the answers may be of general interest. Thank you for asking. 1. How exactly does the daily and weekly forecast work? can you give an example? The daily, the weekly and the monthly forecast are based on three …

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The hidden disorder of the market

Often, you read someone that has the key of the “hidden order” of the markets and is so kind and altruist to share such a knowledge with you. Can you trust? Can you believe? In my opinion, after years of testing and developing the artificial intelligence model that powers this site, there is no hidden …

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A brand new Signal indicator

Signal was the very first indicator that I developed for the A.I. model: it used to fire a +/- 1 value at market extremes, marking top and bottoms. I never did touch it again, but in the meantime the model has evolved quite a lot. The first consequence of the ongoing research on cyclicality has …

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Does this stock market scares you?

I read an article today that highlights the fact that a lot of investors are scared by this current stock market. The stock market is moving opposite to almost any prevision made by mainstream media, it should have crashed after Trump election or Brexit, and instead it is rising madly and without rest. All this rises confusion …

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Never seen before

In the rising market, you are continuously convinced that a crash is imminent and this is the fuel that makes the market grow, having a lot of people on the wrong side. We are watching it in the latest months, whenever the downturn seems inevitable, the market turns up blindly, no way. If I should …

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Performance chart update

I know that every new reader of the blog, and older too, has one and just one question to ask: what about performance? Show us tables, comparisons, benchmarks, charts! I tried to explain many times that working with Artificial Intelligence shifts the approach, opens a completely new way of thinking to trading and/or investing and …

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Two is better than one

Time to update about the development. The alternative weekly model is under alfa testing and should need data to feed it. It has grown to a complete new model, even if it has not yet a name: maybe A1model. Or Bmodel. It has not yet a different personality, it just replicate the Amodel with some …

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Noise

Noise is everywhere. We could even argue that trends are made out of noise. Inside massive markets, volatility can be your worst enemy: psychology again comes on stage. Every turn in the price creates uncertainty and uncertainty accumulates. Your confusion grows. It’s difficult to make correct investment decisions and timing when in confusion. If you …

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Closing the position

You are holding your position and then, at a certain point, you decide to close it. Deciding to close is very different from deciding to open. In the latter case you are starving, you want to chase. In the former case you have a background of days collecting gains, often a sparkling kind of magic …

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Opening the position

You have done all your homeworks and training and paper trading and you are now ready to open your real position. As instrument we will use an etf on the S&P 500, plain and edged, so that we focus only on the variations of the reference index. Before opening the position, there should be some …

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Two or three words on risk

  For the trader or the investor, the word risk is one of the principal keywords. Nobody knows what risk really is, so relax. On the other side, everybody knows what risk means: as animals, we continuously react to external stresses under a risk based strategy, intended to minimize the possible negative consequences. It’s something …

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Sharper, sharper we go

Latest days were hard. I do not mean bad, but hard. It was evident that the model was in crisis. Maybe the fact that the market is going into a never seen territory, or maybe due to its internal conditions, actually I’m not sure of the cause, but I was aware of the disrupted path …

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How to choose your trading platform

Once you decide to self manage your money, first of all you need to have a trading account at a bank or a broker. Nowadays, almost every bank offers a trading platform on line, where you can trade a huge number of instruments, mainly stocks, futures, options, cfd, etf, etc and investement funds. A lot depends on …

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Introduction to money self management

This is the first of a series of posts dedicated to individuals interested in investing and trading, but without experience, where I try to explain the basics of money self management. A lot of people is intimidated by any discourse about money, for various reasons the first being the total lack of formation and experience. …

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Market prediction can be risky business

I love risky business… 😉 It’s a pleasure to read these recurrent articles about forecasting, innit? Financially Speaking John Spoto, Dec 2, 2016 from http://www.eagletribune.com/business/market-prediction-can-be-risky-business/article_0cbfc4f3-21c5-5069-880e-32bd182fabd6.html  Predicting where the stock market is heading has been the holy grail of financial professionals for over a century. Every year investment companies and forecasting firms dedicate enormous sums pitching their prognostications …

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Trading opinions

Every trader and investor has her/his own framework of opinions that pilot the triggers. It is a mix of experience, knowledge and emotions. As your decisions are worth a gain, you have an euphorical sensation that you are mastering the forces that drive the market, but on the other side if your decisions take you …

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New attitude for new market

It is almost one year that the spxbot.com site is on and three and a half years since I begun developing the model. Well, many previous experiences have built the necessary skills, but this is the timing.  No, it’s not time to draw conclusions, the work is still going on – will it ever last? …

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Power of artificial intelligence

Just a reminder: about one month ago I made public  some of the projections of the A.I. model in the post https://spxbot.com/2016/10/20/euro-investors-may-get-double-profit/  The post was not about the numbers, but about an unique opportunity that Euro based investors were facing (and are still facing). In the meantime the EURUSD has passed from around 1.095 to …

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Update to Elliott’s soup

Today’s reading of the Elliott’s Wave (chart by AdvGet) does confirm the projections of the A.I. model: after completing a first wave, the market is now searching for the (2) support to start the (3) wave. You may note the two supports Ellipse indicator. The area just under 2100 seems to be a strong resistence …

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No divinations

I’m always here to show something obscure coming in from the future, but today I’d like to to just fix a point in the present. No divinations. The chart is speaking. This is a CFD continuous chart daily bars of S&P 500 index. We know the market is discounting a crucial event in less the …

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