Model’s tuning
Long time no see! I’ve been busy, reconsidering the structure of r.Virgeel. I come up that we need more signals and this led me to split the Position indicator, having signals from the long positions and from the short positions,…
spxbot blog
artificial intelligence robo-advisor for the S&P 500 stock index SPX / ^GSPC / SP500
spxbot blog
artificial intelligence robo-advisor for the S&P 500 stock index SPX / ^GSPC / SP500
Category free (all)
New Forecast Chart
The migration process is almost completed. New hardware, new database, revised faster code and a new chart layout. And more. Porting the code to the new hardware (and new OS), was long and plenty of traps: I had to walk…
At which point is the Trump’s Wave? a Roadmap
The Trump’s Wave started on Nov. 2016, where the yellow dot is placed. To better get the shape of the growing branch, the weekly data is much better. No need to say that the U.S. stock market is in orgiastic…
A brief history of SPXBOT
In the late 80s, I crossed with BrainMaker, a suggestive piece of software that let you play with neural networks. I was working as an architect and I was self taught in the theory of patterns as formulated by Christopher…
Riding the wave and then… splash!
Following my previous post, I would like to point out that approaching the a.i. advisory, you have to change your mind. With most probability, you are trained in technical analysis, various techniques to train your eye and numbers to correlate…
Psychological consequences of a.i. advisory
If you are a happy trader, you can avoid reading this post. You have your instruments and techniques and take home your living. You are in the 5%. This post is written for the other 95%. Yes, 95% of traders…
As you asked
A daytrading reader ask about some features of the site. Here the reply: Stamina indicator is designed to evaluate how much energy is implicit in market conditions to complete the current move. It is somethig as the mirror of…
As you asked: intraday
A reader asked: I was looking at the details of the Spxbot but I wasn’t sure if it would give me the info I’m looking for. I day trade the SPX and I am looking for a forecast that provide…
from Forbes: Artificial Intelligence Investing Gets Ready For Prime Time
Avant snow apres sky
Trading is like skying. You always make the same simple moves (start, end, turn right, turn left) and the same tracks, but never in the same way. Never the same weather, snow condition, visibility, temperature, and so on: every…
The Psychology of Misjudgement
The Psychology of Misjudgement by C. Munger (that Charles Munger!) Download PDF file ch.munger_16_1
Why the majority is always wrong
thanks to TED.com
Model Training Update
The model needs training. The training tools have been deeply revised. In the beginning the training was done by hand (!). Then a simple tool interfaced the operations, still giving space to errors and inaccuracies. Now the training tool…
The Lazy Investor and A.I.
Artificial intelligence is for lazy investors and this for two orders of reasons: it reduces the frequency of trading actions and it relieves you from the necessity of having an opinion. Any of our action requires an opinion and, in…
New improvement
In latest days, I’ve added and checked a new improvement to the model that generates the forecasts published by spxbot.com. As you might know, the input to a neural network is usually preprocessed, for many reasons, usually to eliminate excesses…
Artificial Intelligence is different
Trading is one of the easiest activities around: few seconds and you are in position, few seconds and you are out of your position. Making it profitable is a totally different discourse. Libraries are plenty of technical and fundamental analysis…
New developments
New developments at spxbot.com, while the S&P 500 navigates the unknown waters of new all times highs. As it was implicit in the trained data, I shaped the Long Term Trend indicator, that reads the trend from current data. It…
What is building up
I’ve learned that trading and investing activity tends to shift to short term, using daily and sub daily time frames. We are deluged by a tsunami of data, instant data that easily make our attention derail. The S&P 500 index…
Artificial Intelligence core explained
It’s not my aim to explain how Artificial Intelligence works and I never tried to, just sometimes I’ve discussed the media approach on the topic. I’ve seen this video and it explains quite well how the core of this technology…
The Dark Side of the Spreadsheet
I have read the following and, again, I thought about the misinterpretation that Artificial Intelligence is going through. Do your remember Visicalc? Probably not. Visicalc was the first spreadsheet, 20 rows by 5 column (!) by Dan Bricklin with…
Do we need Artificial Intelligence?
I’m wandering: do we need Artificial Intelligence to recognize that we are in a bull market? When you are inside a trend, corrections are our friends and the fear of the top (or bottom) is our recurrent trouble. But, surfing…
Engine maintenance
Latest days were spent revising the Amodel’s engine. For as simple as neural networks can be ideally, they cannot work if not arranged in an “engine”, a complex of parts that interact. I played with two components mainly: the preprocessor…
Artificial Intelligence vs. Natural Stupidity
I imagine that many readers interested in the Artificial Intelligence topic are getting used to a very romantic view of the argument. The majority of the articles you may read present anxious questions about a technocratic future generated and managed…
As you asked
I have received the following questions from a reader and I’m happy to publicly reply, considering that the answers may be of general interest. Thank you for asking. 1. How exactly does the daily and weekly forecast work? can you…
The hidden disorder of the market
Often, you read someone that has the key of the “hidden order” of the markets and is so kind and altruist to share such a knowledge with you. Can you trust? Can you believe? In my opinion, after years of…
A brand new Signal indicator
Signal was the very first indicator that I developed for the A.I. model: it used to fire a +/- 1 value at market extremes, marking top and bottoms. I never did touch it again, but in the meantime the model…
Does this stock market scares you?
I read an article today that highlights the fact that a lot of investors are scared by this current stock market. The stock market is moving opposite to almost any prevision made by mainstream media, it should have crashed after Trump election…
Never seen before
In the rising market, you are continuously convinced that a crash is imminent and this is the fuel that makes the market grow, having a lot of people on the wrong side. We are watching it in the latest months,…
Performance chart update
I know that every new reader of the blog, and older too, has one and just one question to ask: what about performance? Show us tables, comparisons, benchmarks, charts! I tried to explain many times that working with Artificial Intelligence…
Two is better than one
Time to update about the development. The alternative weekly model is under alfa testing and should need data to feed it. It has grown to a complete new model, even if it has not yet a name: maybe A1model. Or…
Noise
Noise is everywhere. We could even argue that trends are made out of noise. Inside massive markets, volatility can be your worst enemy: psychology again comes on stage. Every turn in the price creates uncertainty and uncertainty accumulates. Your confusion…
Closing the position
You are holding your position and then, at a certain point, you decide to close it. Deciding to close is very different from deciding to open. In the latter case you are starving, you want to chase. In the former…
Opening the position
You have done all your homeworks and training and paper trading and you are now ready to open your real position. As instrument we will use an etf on the S&P 500, plain and edged, so that we focus only…
Two or three words on risk
For the trader or the investor, the word risk is one of the principal keywords. Nobody knows what risk really is, so relax. On the other side, everybody knows what risk means: as animals, we continuously react to external…
Sharper, sharper we go
Latest days were hard. I do not mean bad, but hard. It was evident that the model was in crisis. Maybe the fact that the market is going into a never seen territory, or maybe due to its internal conditions,…
How to choose your trading platform
Once you decide to self manage your money, first of all you need to have a trading account at a bank or a broker. Nowadays, almost every bank offers a trading platform on line, where you can trade a huge number…