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Model’s tuning

Long time no see! I’ve been busy, reconsidering the structure of r.Virgeel. I come up that we need more signals and this led me to split the Position indicator, having signals from the long positions and from the short positions,…

New Forecast Chart

The migration process is almost completed. New hardware, new database, revised faster code and a new chart layout. And more. Porting the code to the new hardware (and new OS), was long and plenty of traps: I had to walk…

As you asked

A daytrading reader ask about some features of the site. Here the reply: Stamina indicator is designed to evaluate how much energy is implicit in market conditions to complete the current move. ​ It is somethig as the mirror of…

As you asked: intraday

A reader asked: I was looking at the details of the Spxbot but I wasn’t sure if it would give me the info I’m looking for. I day trade the SPX and I am looking for a forecast that provide…

Avant snow apres sky

  Trading is like skying. You always make the same simple moves (start, end, turn right, turn left)  and the same tracks, but never in the same way. Never the same weather, snow condition, visibility, temperature, and so on: every…

Model Training Update

  The model needs training. The training tools have been deeply revised. In the beginning the training was done by hand (!). Then a  simple tool interfaced the operations, still giving space to errors and inaccuracies. Now the training tool…

New improvement

In latest days, I’ve added and checked a new improvement to the model that generates the forecasts published by spxbot.com. As you might know, the input to a neural network is usually preprocessed, for many reasons, usually to eliminate excesses…

New developments

New developments at spxbot.com, while the S&P 500 navigates the unknown waters of new all times highs. As it was implicit in the trained data, I shaped the Long Term Trend indicator, that reads the trend from current data. It…

What is building up

I’ve learned that trading and investing activity tends to shift to short term, using daily and sub daily time frames. We are deluged by a tsunami of data, instant data that easily make our attention derail. The S&P 500 index…

The Dark Side of the Spreadsheet

I have read the following and, again, I thought about the misinterpretation that Artificial Intelligence is going through. Do your remember Visicalc? Probably not. Visicalc was the first spreadsheet, 20 rows by 5 column (!) by Dan Bricklin with…

Engine maintenance

Latest days were spent revising the Amodel’s engine. For as simple as neural networks can be ideally, they cannot work if not arranged in an “engine”, a complex of parts that interact. I played with two components mainly: the preprocessor…

Artificial Intelligence vs. Natural Stupidity

I imagine that many readers interested in the Artificial Intelligence topic are getting used to a very romantic view of the argument. The majority of the articles you may read present anxious questions about a technocratic future generated and managed…

As you asked

I have received the following questions from a reader and I’m happy to publicly reply, considering that the answers may be of general interest. Thank you for asking. 1. How exactly does the daily and weekly forecast work? can you…

Does this stock market scares you?

I read an article today that highlights the fact that a lot of investors are scared by this current stock market. The stock market is moving opposite to almost any prevision made by mainstream media, it should have crashed after Trump election…

Never seen before

In the rising market, you are continuously convinced that a crash is imminent and this is the fuel that makes the market grow, having a lot of people on the wrong side. We are watching it in the latest months,…

Two is better than one

Time to update about the development. The alternative weekly model is under alfa testing and should need data to feed it. It has grown to a complete new model, even if it has not yet a name: maybe A1model. Or…

Noise

Noise is everywhere. We could even argue that trends are made out of noise. Inside massive markets, volatility can be your worst enemy: psychology again comes on stage. Every turn in the price creates uncertainty and uncertainty accumulates. Your confusion…

Closing the position

You are holding your position and then, at a certain point, you decide to close it. Deciding to close is very different from deciding to open. In the latter case you are starving, you want to chase. In the former…

Opening the position

You have done all your homeworks and training and paper trading and you are now ready to open your real position. As instrument we will use an etf on the S&P 500, plain and edged, so that we focus only…

Two or three words on risk

  For the trader or the investor, the word risk is one of the principal keywords. Nobody knows what risk really is, so relax. On the other side, everybody knows what risk means: as animals, we continuously react to external…

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