free

The Indicators

This post explains the main website feature: the indicators that form r.Virgeel vision of the market. The indicators are: Bars ahead – neurally calculated – H/L/C is forecasted for the next 24 bars Target– neurally calculated – where the current move is heading Stop – neurally calculated- a value that confirm the trend and generates …

The Indicators Read More »

Troubled Waters

  Hi, I’m r.Virgeel. This is a screen capture of  a 2D chart of a slice of my brain. It is the description of tiny bit of reality: not exactly, but not so far from a DNA representation of the S&P 500. What is interesting about this image, is that as reality shapes itself through …

Troubled Waters Read More »

The Big Jump Ahead is here

Today r.Virgeel is in musical mode, and it’s now projecting next top in mid/late June. It will be high, really high. Know it in advance!        

Spxbot robo-advisory performance

(this post was originally published in the newsletter no.1 in mid January. Probably I will not publish any performance related data in the future, mainly beacause r.Virgeel is not a trading system and also because real performance depends on a lot of factors, depending on your location, tax burden, investment strategy, etc. Anyway, the first …

Spxbot robo-advisory performance Read More »

Model’s tuning

Long time no see! I’ve been busy, reconsidering the structure of r.Virgeel. I come up that we need more signals and this led me to split the Position indicator, having signals from the long positions and from the short positions, separated. In effect, the Position indicator has been split since its inception, but I’ve always …

Model’s tuning Read More »

New Forecast Chart

The migration process is almost completed. New hardware, new database, revised faster code and a new chart layout. And more. Porting the code to the new hardware (and new OS), was long and plenty of traps: I had to walk through any line of code and some parts had to be completely rewritten. Since a …

New Forecast Chart Read More »

A brief history of SPXBOT

In the late 80s, I crossed with BrainMaker, a suggestive piece of software that let you play with neural networks. I was working as an architect and I was self taught in the theory of patterns as formulated by Christopher Alexander. On one side pattern recognition, on the other side patterns in reality. Nice field …

A brief history of SPXBOT Read More »

Riding the wave and then… splash!

  Following my previous post, I would like to point out that approaching the a.i. advisory, you have to change your mind. With most probability, you are trained in technical analysis, various techniques to train your eye and numbers to correlate the stream of data. With an extended application to chart reading and some discipline, …

Riding the wave and then… splash! Read More »

As you asked

A daytrading reader ask about some features of the site. Here the reply: Stamina indicator is designed to evaluate how much energy is implicit in market conditions to complete the current move. ​ It is somethig as the mirror of the Target. ​ It is calculated separately positive (for long position) and negative (for short ones). …

As you asked Read More »

As you asked: intraday

A reader asked: I was looking at the details of the Spxbot but I wasn’t sure if it would give me the info I’m looking for. I day trade the SPX and I am looking for a forecast that provide intraday data for the current day. Does your program give that data? I read where …

As you asked: intraday Read More »

Avant snow apres sky

  Trading is like skying. You always make the same simple moves (start, end, turn right, turn left)  and the same tracks, but never in the same way. Never the same weather, snow condition, visibility, temperature, and so on: every time it’s different. Imagine that the neural network knows the track. It does not guarantee …

Avant snow apres sky Read More »

The Psychology of Misjudgement

The Psychology of Misjudgement by C. Munger (that Charles Munger!) Download PDF file ch.munger_16_1      

Model Training Update

  The model needs training. The training tools have been deeply revised. In the beginning the training was done by hand (!). Then a  simple tool interfaced the operations, still giving space to errors and inaccuracies. Now the training tool has become a complete “position manager”. I have in mind to call it R.Virgeel, but …

Model Training Update Read More »

The Lazy Investor and A.I.

  Artificial intelligence is for lazy investors and this for two orders of reasons: it reduces the frequency of trading actions and it relieves you from the necessity of having an opinion. Any of our action requires an opinion and, in trading, our opinions are, usually, like TNT in the hands of a chimp. It’s …

The Lazy Investor and A.I. Read More »

New improvement

In latest days, I’ve added and checked a new improvement to the model that generates the forecasts published by spxbot.com. As you might know, the input to a neural network is usually preprocessed, for many reasons, usually to eliminate excesses in the raw data and to create a more uniform analysis environment. Even if it …

New improvement Read More »

Artificial Intelligence is different

Trading is one of the easiest activities around: few seconds and you are in position, few seconds and you are out of your position. Making it profitable is a totally different discourse. Libraries are plenty of technical and fundamental analysis books and the internet is plenty of websites that offer amazing returns. All of them …

Artificial Intelligence is different Read More »

New developments

New developments at spxbot.com, while the S&P 500 navigates the unknown waters of new all times highs. As it was implicit in the trained data, I shaped the Long Term Trend indicator, that reads the trend from current data. It is a neural indicator, meaning that it is the output of a neural network, that …

New developments Read More »

What is building up

I’ve learned that trading and investing activity tends to shift to short term, using daily and sub daily time frames. We are deluged by a tsunami of data, instant data that easily make our attention derail. The S&P 500 index has pinged its latest historical minimum during March 2009 at 666.79. I can see the …

What is building up Read More »

Artificial Intelligence core explained

It’s not my aim to explain how Artificial Intelligence works and I never tried to, just sometimes I’ve discussed the media approach on the topic. I’ve seen this video and it explains quite well how the core of this technology works. We are speaking about back-propagation neural network, the pattern recognition engine that works at …

Artificial Intelligence core explained Read More »

The Dark Side of the Spreadsheet

I have read the following https://www.technologyreview.com/s/604087/the-dark-secret-at-the-heart-of-ai/ and, again, I thought about the misinterpretation that Artificial Intelligence is going through. Do your remember Visicalc? Probably not. Visicalc was the first spreadsheet, 20 rows by 5 column (!) by Dan Bricklin with Bob Frankston. It was 1978. The Spreadsheet! The tools that makes the world go around… …

The Dark Side of the Spreadsheet Read More »