Since a few weeks, subscribers have a new tool, the AlphaChart page. This page on the website has substituted the daily email and post, it has a larger chart, almost all model’s outputs are represented and it integrates the weekly and the monthly forecasts on the same chart. Most recent bars are enlarged in the …
I have published the usual monthly update and in the post I have included a significant minority report. One subscriber was surprised by the existence of a “minority report” and asked how does it work. It is an interesting question, that I cannot reply exhaustively, without revealing some well-kept secret about the building of the …
Bifurcations, minority reports and r.Virgeel’s jargon Read More »
How di r.Virgeel acted from the last turning of the current wave? This is the forecast chart brewed on December 31st, 2018, when the model turned positive at the end of the correction. Since then, r.Virgeel has been long, with some indecision here and there, always solved in one bar. A long bear …
During the whole month of January I have strictly watched out the D-FT behavior. All the obstacles have been easily bypassed by the comparison of the other indicators. r.Virgeel is working well and I’m preparing a new enhanced chart. It will be ready in a few days, if I can solve some stupid (?) problem …
In the previous post “Forecast/ability” I did refer to the daily a.i. forecasts and I showed the results of a long and extensive research on the quality of the response of the model. But when we come to the weekly and to the monthly forecast, things change radically and for the best. Undoubtedly, weekly and …
Following my previous post “New Tools at the Horizon“, one question was twirling in my mind: why the stock market is forecastable, but the forecasts are not affordable? The forecastability of the market is an evidence, because if it were not – being it just a random walk – there would not be the possibility …
In past September, I designed a new weekly model and some new tools to investigate more deeply the quality of r.Virgeel’s model response. The results were really astonishing and have started a real revolution inside my approach to artificial intelligence and investing. Three months later, after a huge amount of testing and experiments, the new …
“I wanted to ask you if you ever thinking about making an intraday trading system.” (W.M.) In the past, I already tried to build a real time version of the model, but it has some limitations: it’s hard to have quality data for a large set of instruments without “holes” and back in time …
I’m working on the weekly version of the FastTrack indicator and you may see it in action in the following chart. It has reversed to negative (short positions) at 2919.047 / 2905.918 (crossed twice 6 and 5 weeks ago), and then to positive long positions last week at 2682.437. This weekly version is brand new …
UPDATE 2018/12/14 Today I’ve closed the free alpha testing of the FastTrack. It is fantastic! All the spxbot readers have seen in real time it’s performance. Operations were simulated on a CFD platform. I have stopped the last (virtual) operation today in the morning (CET), with the SPX at 2623. Prices subject to a bit …
If you’ve read here and there around the blog, you know I sometimes used the word “bifurcation” to indicate double exit situations, but I’ve never been able to show them, before. Now I’m building a new tool and the results are plenty of surprises. One is the following chart: Next day bar is forecasted quite …
r.Virgeel’s model is undergoing deep modifications, sparkled by the development of the new weekly model, that has made evident some before obscure aspects. Where there was a wood, there is now a vast pratery. I’m translating the modifications into the “traditional” daily model and, it’s early to say, it seems getting sharper. The experiments must …
For many months, I’ve tried to put together the pieces to have a long term database, monthly based and with a huge history. I was moved by the progress of the monthly forecast, that I see sharper than before. No way. Data is largely unavailable. Very few series of mayor commodities and indices are out …
The following chart is the checkout for the forecast by r.Virgeel issued on 13th of August 2018 (red dot) after market close and actual S&P 500 bars. Evaluating the Next Bars indicator, r.Virgeel detects the less improbable pattern of H/L/C (H/L bars charted here in Magenta) for next 24 bars, under current markets conditions. The …
The markets are the places where opinions are transformed in money. Opinions are represented by numbers. In we consider the S&P 500, it’s numbers represent the greed and fear oscillation, under a global scale, as it is the largest stock index traded. The market is an ever-changing-chaotic-bipolar environment, made up by thousands of individuals, everyone …
The S&P 500 has entered a new never seen before territory, passing 2900 level on Monday, and you may wonder how it is possible that r.Virgeel may forecast something that it has never seen before. It’s a good question. You have to know that neural networks, if applied to a well designed model, have the …
You probably have noted an evident discrepancy in the public weekly and monthly range chart, published daily on the site home page: this is mainly due to the fact that in the latest couple of weeks the S&P 500 has gone through a large bifurcation, well managed by r.Virgeel in the daily and weekly time …
The following slider shows some latest forecasts brewed by r.Virgeel on daily time frame: it is almost in realtime, as it shows how the model has acted since the last bottom in 2700 area in late June, starting from the close of latest 27th of June to 18th of July, for 15 bars, so three …
I’ve done a step further – a short step, indeed – in the construction of a report from the data output of r.Virgeel. It speaks numbers, but we better see some added word, I suppose. So I’ve added a new section to the daily report (only for subscribers, so), titled “r.Virgeel condensed”: it summarizes the …
If you have read some of my notes, you may have formed the idea that I hate technical analysis (ta). That’s not true. Dealing with r.Virgeel, I have seen the dramatic limitations of ta, but also some interesting aspects. For ta, I refer to a program (or a website) that let you chart the price …
In latest weeks, I did some homekeeping to the website, reorganizing the contents of the blog, improving graphics and revising all pages. A brand new intoductory page is online, that explains the genesis and the characteristics of r.Virgeel. I noted, re-reading many of the texts, that I often linger to show where r.Virgeel has problems …
Different trading and investing styles I’m fully aware of the basic fact that every trader and investor has it’s own style. Many school of thinking, but everyone is really different, particularly in the private sector. If a private trader survives the first 18 months without being wiped out, then she/he may have the possibility to …
Going throug the whole materials that I have accumutated during spxbot development, I crossed this post from Dec. 19th 2014, available here. This was the very day I opened my eyes, this chart demontrated that, even if it was in it’s very first steps, r.Virgeel could see “things that we humans…” The chart is here. …
I wish to stick to showing you samples of the r.Virgeel activity, in (almost) real time. There is no other way to test r.Virgeel than real time. Also, to avoid the “well chosen sample” effect. Here, on the left, the forecasted bars evaluated on May 17th, on the right the chart of the actual bars …