elliott’s soup

The S&P 500 in Elliott’s Soup

The S&P 500 in Elliott’s Soup

It’s a long while I do not update the reading of the S&P 500 index with Elliott’s Wave, so today it’s time to see how the index is positioned for the medium term future.

Here the chart, as usual brewed with the old faithful AdvGET standalone software: it’s old, but it’s always on the point.

The S&P 500 for 11/12/2021 close

The S&P 500 is well fit, pointing to the 5000 area and the third wave of the current impulsive move is underway.

In a few weeks, we may see the formation of the fourth corrective wave and then the big push ahead, with the final fifth that will probably be explosive. The time target, as estimated by r.Virgeel, is next February.

Posted by Luca in elliott's soup

Serendipity at work

r.Virgeel’s model is undergoing deep modifications, sparkled by the development of the new weekly model, that has made evident some before obscure aspects. Where there was a wood, there is now a vast pratery. I’m translating the modifications into the “traditional” daily model and, it’s early to say, it seems getting sharper. The experiments must always be reversed, so it is a slow testing, but with exciting results.

Things are getting simpler and faster. It’s a good point. Sharpness seems improving. Another good point. Synchrony between daily and weekly models are at highest levels ever seen. And this is very intersting.

If you have read around the site, you already know that the three models (daily, weekly and monthly) are maintained and calculated separately, without contacts of any sort. Totally indipendents. The fact that they go in synchro is poorly probable, evidently. I take this a good sign that we I’m moving in the right direction.

Great. Nice moment, nice words, but where is the meat? Where are we in this big mess that is the S&P 500?

Well let me reply hiding the r.Virgeel answer to the question behind the beloved Elliott’s Soup, or Elliott’s Wave Theory,  that is pointing at the development of a fifth wave, on the following chart (by AdvGet). The total branch is well formed, the dynamic seems academic. We have just broke the previous (3) high, and we have a long accumulative phase behind. Rising highs and lows. All this preludes a strong move toward the top.  The chart shows two targets, at 3000 and 3300. The first is very near and it will be a mediatic shock when reached. What? The Stock Market Going To The Stars!

To fully develop, the fifth must take in the newbies. They are the fresh meat that fuels the money draining that happens when large bull movements happen. Opimism will spread, soon, around the stock market.

Beware the day the very first title of the tv is “The Stock Markets Booms!”. That will be the day to get out.


Chart by AdvancedGet






Posted by Luca in elliott's soup, free, generics, r.Virgeel

Update to Elliott’s soup


Today’s reading of the Elliott’s Wave (chart by AdvGet) does confirm the projections of the A.I. model: after completing a first wave, the market is now searching for the (2) support to start the (3) wave. You may note the two supports Ellipse indicator. The area just under 2100 seems to be a strong resistence and the place to start accumulate. Maybe we will have some more indecision, as the presidential elections are marking a lot of instability, a few days sliding or chopping until the result. Note that market bullishness is now under 30%, ready for the jump.

Targets are ambitious: the first is at 2340 and there is the possibility that it is reached by year end or January.


Posted by Luca in elliott's soup, free

S&P 500 in Elliott soup


It’s quite a time I do not update the Elliott’s view and here I am today. The moment of big choices is approaching and we can read it in the chart above (by AdvGet):

A long raising wave from mid February to mid August has completed. It can be either the final fifth wave of a long term count or the first wave of a more complex fifth wave.

In first case, we may expect a fast and furious downward trend to develop  quite soon, with the index targeting somewhere between 1750 and 1800. It should be quite a crash! So, what is now labelled A-B-C would become 1-2-3.

In the second case, the index has completed the (1) and we are inside a (2) that may find support above 2100 with a risk of a worst at 2080-90.  Then the bull market may regain strength and jump to some stellar targets that is even embarrassing to write here (we are talking of a minimum of 2340 and a most probable 2650 target, with a possible extension to 3000!).

At the moment, and since a long time, the A.I. model is embracing the second guess and continues to project the index long term higher, signalling a real possibility that the S&P 500 may reach 2700 and even 3000 in next 24 months.


Posted by Luca in elliott's soup, free, model insights, 0 comments

Big Bear Chase still open

The area 2060/70 is a strong resistance that will produce some turbulence, but probabilities are still on the side of a rising index, supported by all the barking bears around, by all the uncertainty and by the  weakness of the euro. A short phase of consolidation is not rare at this stage of the rise, something that may last one or two weekly bars, where some more bears traps will be set to work.

Acquisizione a schermo intero 23032016 115455The Elliott Wave analysis (AdvGet) confirms that the upward move is unfolding as forecasted, even if targets are slightly different from those previewed by the model. What we are looking at is – with much probabilities – the first wave of a new cycle: it will go for new highs in the 2180 area.

Posted by Luca in elliott's soup, forecasts, free