educational

The making of reality

How do we percieve reality? Is reality what we see or is it a product of our mind?

Gamification

If you think that the trader’s activity is similar to a game, I would like to first say it’s not. For many reasons. What makes to someone the trading activity similar to a game is a misconception of the bet. The novice tends to see a buy of a stock share as a bet, and, …

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r.Virgeel’s trading model

  The r.Virgeel’s model is stable since enough to let me say it is now entering its early maturity. I’m working in the refinement field to gain speed, affordability, stability. Less, and this is my fault, I work in the field of communicating how to read and use the model’s output. This is obviously useful …

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As you asked

I have received from a reader: Am planning to take monthly subscription. Before subscribe please let me know below queries. Which platform needed to do trading ? What exactly I get forecasting daily? Any additional analysis i need to know? Before take trade? Will i get entry and exit positions? Will I get text messages …

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Forecast/ability

Following my previous post “New Tools at the Horizon“, one question was twirling in my mind: why the stock market is forecastable, but the forecasts are not affordable? The forecastability of the market is an evidence, because if it were not – being it just a random walk – there would not be the possibility …

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In gloriam of technical analysis

If you have read some of my notes, you may have formed the idea that I hate technical analysis (ta). That’s not true. Dealing with r.Virgeel, I have seen the dramatic limitations of ta, but also some interesting aspects. For ta, I refer to a program (or a website) that let you chart the price …

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spxbot limits

Different trading and investing styles I’m fully aware of the basic fact that every trader and investor has its own style. Many schools of thinking, but everyone is really different, particularly in the private sector. If a private trader survives the first 18 months without being wiped out, then she/he may have the possibility to …

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Daily forecast accuracy sample

I wish to stick to showing you samples of the r.Virgeel activity, in (almost) real time. There is no other way to test r.Virgeel than real time. Also, to avoid the “well chosen sample” effect. Here, on the left, the forecasted bars evaluated on May 17th, on the right the chart of the actual bars …

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The Indicators

This post explains the main website feature: the indicators that form r.Virgeel vision of the market. The indicators are: Bars ahead – neurally calculated – H/L/C is forecasted for the next 24 bars Target– neurally calculated – where the current move is heading Stop – neurally calculated- a value that confirm the trend and generates …

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A brief history of SPXBOT

In the late 80s, I crossed with BrainMaker, a suggestive piece of software that let you play with neural networks. I was working as an architect and I was self taught in the theory of patterns as formulated by Christopher Alexander. On one side pattern recognition, on the other side patterns in reality. Nice field …

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Noise

Noise is everywhere. We could even argue that trends are made out of noise. Inside massive markets, volatility can be your worst enemy: psychology again comes on stage. Every turn in the price creates uncertainty and uncertainty accumulates. Your confusion grows. It’s difficult to make correct investment decisions and timing when in confusion. If you …

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Closing the position

You are holding your position and then, at a certain point, you decide to close it. Deciding to close is very different from deciding to open. In the latter case you are starving, you want to chase. In the former case you have a background of days collecting gains, often a sparkling kind of magic …

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Opening the position

You have done all your homeworks and training and paper trading and you are now ready to open your real position. As instrument we will use an etf on the S&P 500, plain and edged, so that we focus only on the variations of the reference index. Before opening the position, there should be some …

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Two or three words on risk

  For the trader or the investor, the word risk is one of the principal keywords. Nobody knows what risk really is, so relax. On the other side, everybody knows what risk means: as animals, we continuously react to external stresses under a risk based strategy, intended to minimize the possible negative consequences. It’s something …

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How to choose your trading platform

Once you decide to self manage your money, first of all you need to have a trading account at a bank or a broker. Nowadays, almost every bank offers a trading platform on line, where you can trade a huge number of instruments, mainly stocks, futures, options, cfd, etf, etc and investement funds. A lot depends on …

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Introduction to money self management

This is the first of a series of posts dedicated to individuals interested in investing and trading, but without experience, where I try to explain the basics of money self management. A lot of people is intimidated by any discourse about money, for various reasons the first being the total lack of formation and experience. …

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Market prediction can be risky business

I love risky business… 😉 It’s a pleasure to read these recurrent articles about forecasting, innit? Financially Speaking John Spoto, Dec 2, 2016 from http://www.eagletribune.com/business/market-prediction-can-be-risky-business/article_0cbfc4f3-21c5-5069-880e-32bd182fabd6.html  Predicting where the stock market is heading has been the holy grail of financial professionals for over a century. Every year investment companies and forecasting firms dedicate enormous sums pitching their prognostications …

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Trading opinions

Every trader and investor has her/his own framework of opinions that pilot the triggers. It is a mix of experience, knowledge and emotions. As your decisions are worth a gain, you have an euphorical sensation that you are mastering the forces that drive the market, but on the other side if your decisions take you …

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New attitude for new market

It is almost one year that the spxbot.com site is on and three and a half years since I begun developing the model. Well, many previous experiences have built the necessary skills, but this is the timing.  No, it’s not time to draw conclusions, the work is still going on – will it ever last? …

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Questions from a new subscriber

A new subscriber posed some questions that may be of general interest. Thank you for asking, here the answers: Are the signals based on what the model thinks will happen after 6 bars/hours or the full 24? All the signals, except the bars projected into the future, are reading of the status of the market …

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Bifurcation

Bifurcation is a market behavior that you get aware of when deeply analyzing it. I means that almost identical condition may produce opposite  exit direction. Today is one of those days. You may say it’s easy to preview, as Yellen speaks and her market manipulation is absolute. Yes, but the model doesn’t know of  Yellen’s discourse or …

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Responsive and adaptive

Forecast charts from May 05, 2016 The forecast charts are the output of the Amodel. All the work, all the code, all the information that is produced here it is put in there, in the chart. The model is designed to be adaptive and responsive, so that it adapts to (chaotic) ever changing markets. Under specific …

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Brute Force

[W]hen I write here, I usually have in mind an investor, as a reader. Averagely, a professional with a certain wealth, that uses markets to park money with an interesting rate of return. There are a lot of available techniques that let you shape an investment idea and then you have to trigger decisions and operate. …

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