checkouts

Long Term Checkout

In various previous posts, I’ve stated that the monthly forecast is to take into account as a sort of path tracer, an indication, a generic route for future market action. I tend to consider it in this way, having a much more precise weekly and daily forecasts.

Today, I decided to get back to the far away in the past previsions and checkout their validity: I continuously check the forecast, obviously not always correct, but usually, I tend to be a bit superficial with the monthly forecasts. So, let’s see how it performed.

The first chart was the forecast published on the 1st of December 2017: almost 24 months ago! You may note that the forecast for the present November 2019 (the 24th bar in the future) is in the range 3100/3300.

In the second chart, brewed seven months later on the 1st of July 2018, the monthly forecast for the current month of November 2019 (17 bars into the future) was in the range 3050/3150.

Now, I leave to you any consideration about the quality of the forecasts by r.Virgeel, I just want to say that this is what I mean when I say that artificial intelligence is different and that you may “know in advance”.

 

 

 

Posted by Luca in checkouts, free, generics

Latest improvements

Latest months have been plenty of improvements in the structure and behavior of r.Virgeel. It now outputs a standardized 3d matrix of the indicators, that is easy to chart and interpret. A new interpretation and writing module is now active and r.Virgeel is able to write comments on its own. Two new indicators have been introduced: rv.Swing and rv.Rank. The Alpha chart page (premium users only), reflects all these improvements and it’s now easier than ever to read, now that r.Virgeel has started to write.

Latest months evidence is confirming that r.Virgeel is fine-tuned with the S&P 500 index and very responsive to market turns. It anticipates the turning point with simple signals and progressive degradation of the indicators, plus a warning system. A simple interpretation let’s you discern between corrections and major turns, to get maxim profit from the running position. r.Virgeel follows the market either long or short and with the aid of the FastTrack indicator, it can be useful even to intraday traders, at least for figuring out how the market is positioned. By personal experience, given an affordable background description and diving in the intraday arena, with a couple of averages and oscillators, it’s not difficul to follow the waves profitably, even down to the 2 minutes charts.

 

Posted by Luca in checkouts, free, generics, r.Virgeel

Week 19 checkout

Here you may see an enlargement of the chart that the subscribers have receive one week ago, last Friday night (CET), with overimposed the real weekly action: r.Virgeel, in its weekly version, has nicely caught this week range and direction, shown in the rightmost bar, confirming the turn signal generated by the daily forecast.

In circumstances like this, the power of artificial intelligence shows at its best, being able to provide an information that no technical analysis  can even imagine.

Has r.Virgeel access to reserved infos? No. The model is built with the numbers publicly available about the world markets and no mind reading ability has been injected in it. ūüėČ

It is just the power of correlation and pattern recognition: if the model is correctly setup, it sees things that we humans… It’s not magic. It’s number crunching.

Have a good Friday!

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by Luca in a.i., checkouts, free, r.Virgeel

Update to D-FT historical

Following a subscriber’s hint, I have re-brewed the D-FT historical values, with all the four values that are daily provided and for a longer time span, 60 bars instead of 30. Also, there is the date for every record, to make it easier for you to check out past values (please, remember the D-FT is always calculated in anticipation, for the next bar).

Just a final reminder: the D-FT is a very sensitive indicator and I think it is more indicated to provide a frame to intraday to short term traders, unlike the other indicators from r.Virgeel, that are more directed to position traders and investors.

This is a sample of the file format. Fields are:

date, resistance1, support1, resistence2, support3, bars back from day of calculation (in this case 2019-05-08)

SPX D-FT
2019-05-08
© spxbot.com
11/02/2019, 2721.241, 2703.527, 2722.993, 2701.337, 60
12/02/2019, 2755.813, 2721.446, 2748.868, 2736.403, 59
13/02/2019, 2764.75, 2746.467, 2760.096, 2746.55, 58
14/02/2019, 2746.093, 2730.176, 2754.552, 2732.229, 57
15/02/2019, 2786.192, 2773.074, 2784.98, 2761.81, 56
18/02/2019, 2787.897, 2766.648, 2784.827, 2761.917, 55
…..

D-FT historical files are provided for:

  • S&P 500
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average
  • Nasdaq Composite
  • DAX Frankfurt
  • SHC Shanghai
  • GOLD
  • OIL WTI
  • 10Y US Bond Yield

download spxbot.D-FTHistorical03.zip

 

Posted by Luca in checkouts, free, indicators

The turning point

Eight days ago, on the 30th of April, r.Virgeel has fired the first “Close Long Positions”. As usual, since it trained this way, we needed a second signal to confirm, that arrived the following day, on the 1st of May. So, in the next one/two bars, depending on your trading style, the spxbot users have closed their long position, opened back in the first days of January, with a good 16/17% of gain in exactly four months.

r.Virgeel has correctly detected the entry and exit points and it is now evaluating a new target for the current wave downward. I may say, it is interesting to note that usually, at the beginning of a move, r.Virgeel has a more precise outlook of the target, that during the development of the wave gets fuzzier and more undefined (I understand that this may seem against the logic, but it is what I have observed during the years, in many occasions).

Does r.Virgeel have mind-reading powers? No, I just think that some patterns do appear in anticipation of relevant events (someone knows in advance and acts in consequence), impossible to be detected by humans, but not impossible for brute force artificial intelligence.

 

Posted by Luca in checkouts, free, r.Virgeel

D-FT historical data

Solicited by a subscriber, I’ve built the D-FT (Daily FastTrack) data for the latest 30 market sessions, for all the followed symbols:

  • S&P 500 -SPX
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -DJIA
  • Nasdaq Composite -NASDAQ
  • DAX Frankfurt -DAX
  • SHC Shanghai -SHC
  • GOLD
  • OIL WTI
  • 10Y US Bond Yield -TNX

I’m happy that someone helps me to check the validity of the output from r.Virgeel: I follow daily the SPX, but time is never enough to check out everything. Please, let me know what is your opinion about the numbers and the quality of the resulting operativity. Comments are open for your results.

Today’s SPX D-FastTrack

Data is provided as CSV files (easily manageable with Excel or with any programming language), packed in a ZIP file. Every file has three lines of general info, followed by the table formed by three values, the two main FT levels and the distance in the past of the bar they refer to. The last line refers to the values calculated yesterday, valid for today.

You can download the file here: spxbot.D-FTHistorical01

 

 

Posted by Luca in checkouts, free, 0 comments

The current wave viewed by r.Virgeel

How di r.Virgeel acted from the last turning of the current wave?

This is the forecast chart brewed on December 31st, 2018, when the model turned positive at the end of the correction.

 

 

Since then, r.Virgeel has been long, with some indecision here and there, always solved in one bar. A long bear traps trail that has been correctly and smootly followed from 2507 to 2792 today (+11.3%) and much higher, probably, in the immediate future. This first positive forecast was supported by the New Year’s Eve monthly update and from the progressive weekly forecasts.

Following the model, we had no doubts that the positive side of the market was – and is – the long one. What r.Virgeel seems to preview for the coming future is a crazy springtime, times for hard skinned unbiased traders, times plenty of opportunities. Then, we will probably take a rest, jumping on a giant roller coaster that will frighten you crazy. Be prepared. Stay tuned.

 

 

 

Posted by Luca in checkouts, free, performance, r.Virgeel

January checkout

During the whole month of January I have strictly watched out the D-FT behavior. All the obstacles have been¬† easily bypassed by the comparison of the other indicators. r.Virgeel is working well and I’m preparing a new enhanced chart. It will be ready in a few days, if I can solve some stupid (?) problem of auto-execution.

The long term issue of the easy flipping of the daily forecast (linked to the evidence of continuous bifurcations in the data structure) seems now reduced, usually no more than one bar and when the market goes overscale. Using the variety of indicators provided by r.Virgeel, it’s easy to stay on the correct side of the market.¬† Other than the medium-long term investing, I’m now testing the fast realtime trade. It’s not the first time, but the D-FT has introduced a new fashion in the intraday trading I’m sensible to. The two D-FT levels are very effective in helping to determinate the realtime dynamic as market moves. I’m testing the platform and setting up the program, it’s a game that I’ve pushed out from already.

Most of the indicators have been revised, with minor modifications, and the training has been revised completely for all three time frames (daily, weekly and monthly). In my personal opinion, r.Virgeel is in its optimal shape, for the work I can do and for the quality of the output.

I’m also re-approaching the nebulous¬† and elusive theme of cyclical analysis reading about Hurst cycles. No big enlightment, yet. Some improvement, maybe. The thing is there, I know, but still no shape.¬† Let me be clear: I would be very happy to have a totally different non-neural system that confirms r.Virgeel’s market readings,¬† not that I do not trust r.Virgeel, but a confirmation is better, isn’t it?

 

 

 

Posted by Luca in checkouts, free, generics

Mid-August Checkout

The following chart is the checkout for the forecast by r.Virgeel issued on 13th of August 2018 (red dot) after market close and actual S&P 500 bars.

Evaluating the Next Bars indicator, r.Virgeel detects the less improbable pattern of H/L/C (H/L bars charted here in Magenta) for next 24 bars, under current markets conditions.

The day 13th r.Virgeel flipped from neutral to Stay Long. If you want to consider the usual second day confirmation (that arrived) and enter Long on the opening of the third day, you were on the bottom bar.

Anyway, there is a retard in the initial reaction, but the market soon goes in synchro with the forecasted values. (*)

The first real bifurcation comes after 16 bars, but in the meantime we are on the third step at 2900/10. Here befucation means that real values and forecasted ones goes opposite sides.

I may note that r.Virgeel is quite good in arguing the coming short waves pattern. Highs and lows are nicely precise, if you think that they were evaluated on 13th and happened 9 and 13 bars later.Also, it detected the correct rising gradient.

I also would like to note that even if the global 24 bars comparison contains a high deviation error, the resulting pattern was a precious guide to follow the incoming days on the market. This is what I call to Know in Advance.

Since then, r.Virgeel has updated the outlook every day, following the incoming waves.

(*) A final note about tops and bottoms. It is my personal opinion that Mr. Market is stretching its extremes in both directions and to such extremes that you are convinced that market turned, yes, yes yes,… no. It is the way Mr. Market use to squeeze your capital and suck any drop from your fear. It’s difficult to manage, because part of the action is now on the ever awaken global trade, or overnight if you prefer. Tops and bottoms so take “strange” shapes, with gaps.

 

 

 

 

Posted by Luca in checkouts, free, performance, r.Virgeel

Latest performance

The following slider shows some latest forecasts brewed by r.Virgeel on daily time frame: it is almost in realtime, as it shows how the model has acted since the last bottom in 2700 area in late June, starting from the close of latest 27th of June to 18th of July, for 15 bars, so three full weeks.

  • in bar #1, you may note that r.Virgeel marks the third consecutive reverse signal: it’s a very clear entry suggestion,¬† at next bar opening;
  • in bar #2, we have the confirmation: a reversal bar and the Stop now correctly in place;
  • subsequent bars shows how r.Virgeel reacted to some “uncertainties” in the S&P 500 and to the following move.

 

[metaslider id=”11911″]

 

You may finally note that the weekly forecast encapsulated in the chart has been slower, in this case, to adapt to the evolution of the market.

Even considering the worst entry point at 2716 (the close of the 28th), as the index is now around 2800, the position is 84 points positive, or +3%.

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by Luca in checkouts, free, model insights, performance, r.Virgeel

Day checkout

Some days the model makes the magic: yesterday the S&P 500 index was forecasted at 2177.76 for today’s close and it actually closed at 2177.18. By the way the high was forecasted at 2180.10 and it was in reality 2179.99. BOOM!

Well, it is not always so precise… ¬†this is dedicated to SPX! stay hungry, stay long!

(some choppiness ahead, again and again…)

 

Posted by Luca in checkouts, free, 0 comments

Monday checkout: the power of the model

Friday evening the software has produced the usual forecast for Monday (yesterday): here you see just the first two bars into the future , plus the actual market data for yesterday (the white line  + close dot).  Can you see the power of the model?

spx-da-am-20160912-221056-f713faca-d7f6-4bff-b671-5710fa73a689-3500-24

As it often happens, especially with fast moving bars, the future has entered slightly faster that what was forecasted.

You may think: he was lucky! Sorry, there is no he, just number crunching, big data and code at work. No human opinion is involved , so no he and no lucky.

Is the model always correct? no, of course. Sometimes it gets confused, the view gets misted or jumps at bifurcations – the market is not an easy beast and you cannot put yourself against it.

This is what I¬†mean by¬†know in advance. ūüôā

 

 

Posted by Luca in a.i., checkouts, free, 0 comments

Weekly checkout

Today the S&P 500 index closed the week at 2057.14 and it was forecasted six days ago (last Saturday) at 2058.903.

Posted by Luca in checkouts, free