Mid-August Checkout

The following chart is the checkout for the forecast by r.Virgeel issued on 13th of August 2018 (red dot) after market close and actual S&P 500 bars.

Evaluating the Next Bars indicator, r.Virgeel detects the less improbable pattern of H/L/C (H/L bars charted here in Magenta) for next 24 bars, under current markets conditions.

The day 13th r.Virgeel flipped from neutral to Stay Long. If you want to consider the usual second day confirmation (that arrived) and enter Long on the opening of the third day, you were on the bottom bar.

Anyway, there is a retard in the initial reaction, but the market soon goes in synchro with the forecasted values. (*)

The first real bifurcation comes after 16 bars, but in the meantime we are on the third step at 2900/10. Here befucation means that real values and forecasted ones goes opposite sides.

I may note that r.Virgeel is quite good in arguing the coming short waves pattern. Highs and lows are nicely precise, if you think that they were evaluated on 13th and happened 9 and 13 bars later.Also, it detected the correct rising gradient.

I also would like to note that even if the global 24 bars comparison contains a high deviation error, the resulting pattern was a precious guide to follow the incoming days on the market. This is what I call to Know in Advance.

Since then, r.Virgeel has updated the outlook every day, following the incoming waves.

(*) A final note about tops and bottoms. It is my personal opinion that Mr. Market is stretching its extremes in both directions and to such extremes that you are convinced that market turned, yes, yes yes,… no. It is the way Mr. Market use to squeeze your capital and suck any drop from your fear. It’s difficult to manage, because part of the action is now on the ever awaken global trade, or overnight if you prefer. Tops and bottoms so take “strange” shapes, with gaps.

 

 

 

 

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