New Forecast Chart

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The migration process is almost completed. New hardware, new database, revised faster code and a new chart layout. And more. Porting the code to the new hardware (and new OS), was long and plenty of traps: I had to walk through any line of code and some parts had to be completely rewritten. Since a while it is under observation and it is operating with satisfaction.

Here the overwiew of the new chart, with all the elements. For subscribers, the new chart will go operative in a few days , after the last checks.

 

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All indicators, except the Cycle Frequency Analysis and the mhDMI, are the output of neural networks, with no human opinion or intervention. The model (mr. r.Virgeel) is totally unbiased and as deprametrised as possible, making it responsive and adaptive.

The Future Bars

Next 24 bars, that cover a bit more than one month in daily time frame, almost next six months in weekly time frame and two full years in monthly time frame.

The Stop

The Stop is trend following, being the value that the index must not penetrate (on close) otherwise the current position is negated, closed and system goes flat.

The Stamina

Stamina is an evaluation of the residual energy available to the market to proceed in the current trend. It is calculated separately the positive and the negative stamina, relative to positive (long) or negative (short) positions. Turning points have highest stamina, position’s end has the lowest

The Compass

It is a simple confirmation graphic tool: if the arrow is green and point upward, well, long position are preferred. If the arrow points down and is red, the market is on decline.

The Cycle Frequency Analysis

From the https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/manual-models.pdf page 67 and following, I made a reverse engineering of a part (the highs and lows cycles) and it is charted in the bottom strip. Bottom, the Cycles of Lows. In the middle, the Cycles of Highs. At the top, the sum of the two. Please, refers to the PDF link above for any further information.

The mhDMI

This is a modified version of Wilder’s  Direction Movement Indicators (DMI): basically, it is a momentum indicator that splits market action in two different lines, one for positive growing action and one for negative declining action. The modification from the original code is the use of smoothed inputs, that produce an asymmetrical output.

 

 

 

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