It is almost one year that the spxbot.com site is on and three and a half years since I begun developing the model. Well, many previous experiences have built the necessary skills, but this is the timing. No, it’s not time to draw conclusions, the work is still going on – will it ever last? – as I’m now developing a new weekly model, pretty different from the one that is active at the moment, so to have not one, but two readings and a better vision of the market.
Snooping around I see a lot of bearish attitude and I remember that about four years ago I was very bearish and the market was continuously rising. My incapacity to be well tuned was obvious. The results of the model did surprise me: I have to be sincere, I wouldn’t have bet a dime on its success – market is unpredictable is the mantra we have grown with and it is difficult to reset the way we think.
Technical analysis is almost unuseful, otherwise it would be plenty of millionaires around. Maybe you know, 95% of market private traders lose the capital and the shirt in 12/18 months and they usually trust technical analysis tools. I’ve been subscribed to “T. A. of Stocks and Commodities” for years and it gives you a lot of ideas and strength and good attitude, but then I realized that digital technical analysis is about half a century old and it must have been outmoded. Really do you think that with a line of data and a bunch of indicators you can get rich?
We need instruments to manage market noise and dig inside complex ever changing relations, as society itself is deeply changing, now faster than ever. We need an indipendent view on the market, abstract and unbiased, opposite of the continuously manipulated information we are subject.
PS: Years ago, I used to think that market is where opinions are transformed in profit (or more often, in losses). Now I do not let my opinions hinder my investments, as the model is so much smarter than me.