On 23rd of September the model has produced this forecast. It was Friday, and usually as the week closes the model is sharper in viewing into the future. As well as it seems that Thursday forecasts are the weaker, and here I just guess an interpretation: Thursday reflects all the noise accumulated during the week, while Friday is the day the market moves in “safe” mode for the two days close ahead. Moving to safe mode reflects the real sentiment, unavoidably.
If you check the prevision against what has been the actual market behavior, well… I leave the conclusion to you!
So, beware any short position 😉