Pushed by a desire to rationalize the code, I put my hand on the model: the model is the heart of the beast, it is the mechanism that transforms raw data into the description of the phenomenon. It’s inner structure is very sensible, since small modifications can take to largely different outputs. I’ m trying to have a sharper result and a reduction of alternatives, in addiction to a bit of self reference. As the work is going on, forecast charts may experience some confusion, sorry for the unconvenience.
Also, I have in mind some addenda to the analysis: I would like to see a more detailed today-and-tomorrow’s forecast and a medium to long term probe. It will take time.
I’m a bit surprised that the EURUSD free forecast is performing smoothly well: the EURUSD is the wildest beast of the zoo, it is subject to any kind of behavioral instability, really difficult to manage.
Finally, a glimpse to the state of the index: due to model manipulation, I’ve seen many different forecasts in latest days and most of them point to a correction in the near term. The worst scenary is a spike low to 2050 area. Most probably we may assist to a chaos area between 2100 and 2150, that may perform as a nice accumulation area. The model is totally unaware of any external event as presidential election, european referendums, central bank appointments, etc., but it is clear that this chaos will evaporate in a couple of weeks, then a massive move to the dollar will drive the market.
