Brute Force

[W]hen I write here, I usually have in mind an investor, as a reader. Averagely, a professional with a certain wealth, that uses markets to park money with an interesting rate of return. There are a lot of available techniques that let you shape an investment idea and then you have to trigger decisions and operate. The return tends to differ wildly from your expectations. How many parameters does your analysis involve?

If you are a trader, not an investor, you have a quote monitor alive and watch the market on very short time frames, and your chart is sided with technical analysis indicators. Once I read somewhere that 95% of traders exhaust their capital in 12-18 months. How many parameters does your analysis involve?

The A model that powers this site, on daily base, has 81 inputs, at the moment, that range from stock markets around the world to commodities, from rates to forex and more. The weekly base model has 199 inputs, because some econometric data is added.

Well, it’s quite a large matrix. Dozens of columns and thousands of lines. Yes, the A model builds a very large set of past experiences that drive the forecasting process and model future market behavior.  All the sets of experiences (daily, weekly and monthly) are either code ordered and manually  configured, to obtain a mix of automatic and empirical output. Every single input is evaluated by the neural networks and contributes to the building of the output.


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